The arid Sahel region, which covers eight countries stretching from the desert to the savannah, has been in turmoil for decades. Between desertification, poverty, and violent extremism, Sahelian countries have been struggling to maintain stability and foster sustainable development. Several countries have experienced recurring military coups and social uprisings within their territories in the past five years. A military coup took place in Mali in May 2021, followed by ones in Burkina Faso in September 2022 and in Niger in July 2023. The leaders of these coups are all military men who claim to have taken power to stabilize their countries and fight against jihadists.

The new political and diplomatic directions of Burkina Faso, Mali, and Niger are reshaping the Sahelian region and, indirectly, the African continent. In September 2023, these three nations created the Alliance of Sahel States (AES) aimed at a mutual defense agreement and diplomatic coordination regarding foreign affairs. Following the establishment of the charter, the member countries went to work on the initiatives and held their first summit in July 2024 in Niger. The creation of AES was met with considerable support from the member states’ populations. The streets of Niamey, the capital of Niger, were full of supporters of the three military leaders and the new directions of their countries.

The AES members detached from the Economic Community of West African States (ECOWAS) to protest the sanctions imposed on them due to the military coups. This rupture led to more strife between the two blocs, accusing each other of destabilizing the region. As a result, economic and diplomatic ties between ECOWAS and AES are strained, resulting in further internal frictions. Currently, both organizations maintain free trade and immigration; however, these dynamics may change in the future if ECOWAS chooses to retaliate. The AES members are also resorting to bilateral agreements to fill in the gaps of economic advantages lost from exiting ECOWAS.

ECOWAS has historically played the role of mediator in conflicts within the region, with its stand-by forces, composed of military, police, and civilians, ready to intervene when necessary. By creating an armed force of 5,000 troops, the AES claims to fill the void left by the rupture with ECOWAS. With the intensity of extremist attacks on the rise, especially in Mali and Burkina Faso, the joint armed forces do not seem able to curb the violence and protect civilians. The rupture with ECOWAS poses a danger as further regional frictions are an opportunity for terrorist groups to grow.

The sociocultural movement of the AES, with its messages of nationalism and traditional values, resonates with a younger generation eager for a new postcolonial era. In 2025, Togo has expressed interest in joining the AES. Chad, due to its proximity and the fact that it is a member of the now-defunct G5 Sahel, has not ruled out the possibility of joining the alliance. The tangible results of AES leaders’ promises are yet to be seen; therefore, for the moment, the alliance remains a symbol of change.

All three member nations of the AES are former French colonies, and until recently, France maintained a strong diplomatic, political, and cultural hold on them. France also had a significant military presence in Sahel countries, with bases in Niger, Burkina Faso, Mali, and Chad, and a mandate to fight insurgencies and maintain peace. Following years of foreign military presence without noticeable improvement to national security, anti-French and anti-imperialist sentiments intensified, and local populations led protests against the presence of foreign troops.

France’s relationship to Sahelian nations has been unequal and paternalistic, with the European country maintaining a sphere of influence over the region, as it did during the colonial era. A new generation born during the independence era has rejected this postcolonial influence. The world is witnessing a diplomatic shift in which formerly colonized countries break ties with the colonial power and seek new partnerships based in equality and equitable collaboration. The departure of French troops has left a vacuum that Russia is exploiting to increase its influence and present itself as an equal partner, notably through the Wagner Group, which recently merged with Africa Corps, a Russian military company under the country’s Ministry of Defense. Understanding the growing anti-French sentiment in the region, Russia promoted equality, knowing it would appeal to the current generation of leaders. The involvement of Africa Corps in the fight against extremism paved the way for political and diplomatic ties and influence in the region.

However, Russian military support does not seem to have improved the security situation within the AES. In 2023 alone, there were over 8,000 deaths attributed to internal conflicts in Burkina Faso. In Mali, the army, with the support of the Africa Corps, led offensives that have increased the level of violence in the country. The AES countries sharing borders in the Liptako-Gourma region have over 3 million displaced people due to active fighting. Overall, within the AES territories, violence in 2024 increased by 9 percent compared to 2023 and by 37 percent compared to 2021.

These recurring conflicts in the Sahel have drivers rooted in history, local politics, and ethnicity that can only be solved through internal mechanisms. Poor governance, climate change, and poverty exacerbate these conflicts. The leaders in power cannot stop the insurgencies without holistically addressing these root causes. Resenting French colonial legacy is understandable; however, embracing a new foreign partner without first protecting national interests may not be the solution. Russia has been increasing its presence in the West and Central African regions, asserting itself in the global competition to undermine the United States and China. The AES, needing operational support from Russia, could find itself a pawn in a global power competition and fail to provide sustainable stability and peace in their territories.

In its second year, AES is currently at the center of diplomatic and geopolitical shifts, and the world is watching their actions.This organization could be the starting point of new Sahelian diplomacy led by the principles of equality and newfound re-independence. As the alliance builds and establishes its regional mechanisms, historical challenges remain. With one country already expressing its willingness to join, other countries could follow suit. Growing the alliance would increase its strength and operational means in providing security and replacing previous instruments such as the G5 Sahel. Its growth might also increase competition with ECOWAS, heightening regional tensions.

On one hand, the AES has the potential to redefine the region based on sovereignty and equality, if the root causes of their challenges are addressed. On the other, if the challenges persist, it would be the case of another regional agreement struggling to meet its goal.