On October 9, Mozambicans cast their ballots in the general election. The National Elections Commission declared a sweeping victory for Frelimo, which has governed the country since independence in 1975. The election results upset the set-up, with Podemos replacing Renamo as the leading opposition party. But Podemos leader Venâncio Mondlane rejected the results, claiming an outright victory. According to observers, the elections were marred by irregularities, including ghost voters, fake observers, ballot box stuffing, and fictitious tabulations. Under pressure, the Constitutional Council ordered the National Elections Commission to hand over the original tabulations. But the commission, which is dominated by Frelimo appointees, has been less than cooperative. In mid-December, the Constitutional Council is due to announce the final outcome. 

In response to the fraudulent elections—and the subsequent murder of opposition lawyer Elvino Dias and Podemos leader Paulo Guambe—an unprecedented wave of protest action has taken hold across the country. Heeding the call by Mondlane, hundreds of thousands of people have taken to the streets, some marching peacefully and others blocking strategic logistical arteries, including the ports and national borders. The forces of repression have responded erratically, shooting tear gas into homes and live ammunition at protesters. While the casualty count is inconclusive, thousands are estimated to have been arrested, hundreds have been shot and at least 40 have been killed over the last week. 

As António Bai of the Bloco 4 Foundation argues, the persecution of oppositional voices and the closing of political space ultimately undermine the legitimacy of the state and public trust in state institutions.

To understand the politics of this popular uprising, it is important to reflect on Mozambique’s political economy. Over the last decades, there has been a rapid expansion of the extractive sector, which along with adjacent industries, absorbs 90 percent of foreign direct investment but generates only 15 percent of formal salaried employment. The growth of extractive industries has accelerated the expropriation of land and natural resources, undermined the redistributive role of the state, and ultimately resulted in its militarization. As Professor Anne Pitcher details, there is a close relationship between the national oligarchs, who have been able to amass wealth as intermediaries, global capital, and the Mozambican military establishment. For Professor José Jaime Macuane, the propensity to conflict—from skirmishes with Renamo to the jihadist insurgency in Cabo Delgado—reflects the fragmentation of political settlements between elites within the governing coalition and between the governing and non-governing coalition.

On November 21 we discussed the politics underlying the popular uprising in Mozambique with António Bai, Anne Pitcher, and José Jaime Macuane. William Shoki and Ruth Castel-Branco will moderate the webinar.

António Bai is a researcher at Bloco 4 Foundation, where he transforms academic articles into animations. He has a bachelors and a masters degree in political science from the Universidade Eduardo Mondlane. He publishes on social protests and freedom of expression in Mozambique.

Anne Pitcher is the Joel Samoff Collegiate Professor of Political Science and Afroamerican and African Studies at the University of Michigan. Her published work examines electoral and party politics, political economy, the distribution of public goods, and political violence in Africa. Most of her research over the past 30 years has been conducted in Mozambique, Angola, Zambia, South Africa, and more recently, Kenya.

José Jaime Macuane, is an associate professor of political science and public administration, at the Universidade Eduardo Mondlane. His areas of interest focus on the theory of democracy and democratization, political economy of development, and state reform.

Ruth Castel-Branco is a senior lecturer and researcher at the Southern Centre for Inequality Studies at the University of the Witwatersrand. Her published work examines the changing nature of work, worker movements, and the redistributive claims on the state.