Scenario Planning for White South Africa

Scenario planning is something of a cottage industry in South Africa and was particularly popular during the negotiations for democracy in the early 1990s. Careers were launched on the back of this industry, and speakers known for gazing into the crystal ball back then still pack halls with (white) middle class people worried about their future in the country today.

Scenario planning served as a kind of parallel process alongside the negotiations, especially in determining the direction of South Africa’s economic policy. While the former apartheid regime exposed ANC leaders to, for example, Derek Keys, a businessman who briefly turned politician during that period, scenario-planning exercises were used to influence the ANC’s thinking with dominant economic dogma.

These attempts to influence the ANC’s policy makers usually happened in opulent settings where the proffered ideas would be imbibed with a glass or two of wine. The most well known example is probably the Mont Fleur-scenarios, conjured up near Stellenbosch, a university town set among wine estates that has been a magnet for the well heeled.

Scenario planning is clearly not so much about “the future” but about the present. It functions as a strategy to normalize dominant assumptions, in that rather than the revelation of possible futures—albeit through a somewhat questionable, quasi-scientific method—participants are inducted into ways of thinking that only really benefit the status quo.

In scenario planning the results – the “scenarios” – depend on the choice of information fed in at the start, which is determined by the ideological position of the planner. The question is therefore not where Frans Cronje, in his book A Time Traveller’s Guide to Our Next Ten Years (Tafelberg, 2014), thinks South Africa will be in ten years’ time. The question is, rather, which ideological intervention Cronje regards as most urgent in the present and of which he would like to convince readers.

Apart from Cronje being the head of liberal think tank the South African Institute for Race Relations, another clue for readers appears early in the book when he describes the atmosphere in South Africa 20 years ago at the time of the negotiations for democracy:

Even if the country managed to avoid a civil war, many doubted whether the ANC, a socialist liberation movement long supported by the Soviet Union, could possibly govern South Africa. Board rooms and dinner parties were rife with fears that the new government would wreck the economy by expropriating land and nationalising key industries such as mining, thus destroying the middle classes. Fast forward to the present, and we know that the ANC has not ruined the economy, or turned South Africa into a third-world basket case.

This quote, with its inaccurate cliché about the “socialist ANC”, reveals the point of departure. He uses the words “we” and “our” freely, as in the title, but this is a very specific “we” and “our”. Who this “we” refers to becomes clearer when Cronje says: “contrary to popular opinion, significant progress has been made since 1994”. In the May 2014 elections, the ANC attracted some 11 million votes from people who probably mostly think that the country has made significant progress since 1994, so the “popular opinion” under discussion can’t be theirs. The first quote above shows “we” are the people in “board rooms and at dinner parties” – the “largely white middleclass”, as Cronje calls them later. Thus, the author combines the usual liberal emphasis on property rights as the only economic option with judgments associated with a certain form of whiteness. This is the ideological point of departure of this particular scenario planning.

The author then sketches a picture of a suburban existence of BBQ-ing next to the swimming pool amid the expansion of luxurious shopping centres and coffee shops over the past 20 years. Of course, the ANC government has already disproven apartheid rulers’ propaganda–that it would turn South Africa into “another African basket case”, as the oft-heard saying goes. Cronje also sounds surprised that middle-class life is still intact.

But still, the white middle class can’t sleep peacefully. It’s not their consciences keeping them up at night. The bugbear, Cronje unselfconsciously admits, is rather how the glorious middle class existence can continue undisturbed. Because the “real revolution” has only been averted temporarily. At this point appears the usual reference to the threat of the withdrawal of foreign investment to discipline any wayward reader who might be entertaining the daydream of social justice. There are greater economic powers at work, the author warns, that South Africans have to bow to.

Cronje, as the author of this “scenario”, believes that “the disadvantaged” harbor “growing expectations”. This is described as a “crisis”, a “curse” and a “cruel irony”. Obviously only the middle classes may hold expectations (of swimming and BBQ-ing, of course). In his view, having expectations is something that does not behoove those 25 million people living under the breadline in South Africa. His reasoning reminds one of the old colonial nightmare of the “restless natives”… if only they would accept their lot…

Given the ideological basis of Cronje’s planning exercise, Step One is obviously to ponder whether “the poor” will rise up, whether a “racist government” (apparently referring to a black government) will rule and whether wealthy people will be able to escape if things got out of hand. This elite-driven framing, with its implicit reference to “black racism”, draws on current white-right complaints of “reverse discrimination”. It is blind to the everyday interactions among people of different backgrounds that are not always race-based or about economic interests. Cronje-the-scenario-planner apparently does not wonder about ways to promote equality, or how to end poverty and discrimination or deepen democracy and human dignity.

He warns that change is “dead easy” because the “crisis of growing expectations” is happening in a context of constitutional rights and mechanisms. This confluence of factors makes a “second revolution” unavoidable. Presented in this way, post-apartheid South Africa’s commitment to comprehensive human rights is part of the problem.

The scenarios he then proceeds to paint revolve around the economy. Instead of democracy or democratic mechanisms, Cronje’s scenarios speak of mysterious “feedback mechanisms” that determine “freedom” in all likelihood of the economic kind. This conceptual wooliness strengthens the impression that the liberalism on offer here is specifically concerned with the maintenance of existing economic privilege. Building South Africa’s democracy, with its emphasis on human dignity, is less important.

* An earlier version of this review first appeared in Afrikaans in Rapport newspaper, South Africa. The image is from “Casting Shadows” by Edward West.



  1. There is one big flaw in the author’s reasoning. She doesn’t take into account the many benefits that middle class South Africans OF ALL RACES give to South Africa. Sad to say, but it’s those maligned white members of the middle class that provides the most jobs and pay the most taxes. Without them the economy will be in an even worse shape that it is now. Unfortunately a large percentage of the Black middle class work for the ANC government or are in their positions because of Affirmative Action. The ones that do make it on their own, should be lauded. They have the will to succeed. The others will do everything possible to keep the status quo which guarantees a soft cushion to land on for decades to come.

    1. I agree – I sense the author favours genocide as part of ‘social justice’. Well – bring it on. We are still undermining Mugabe’s revolution – it will be fun to counter another.

  2. I am so sick of pundits like Cronje implying that they represent or talk for or even understand ‘whites’. Thanks for seeing through him

  3. I am not sure on this one but the fact remains, as the evidence is apparent in everyday life, that South Africa has already become a third world country, so to state it clearly we already are a third world basket case. It is a case of the frog been heated slowly, they don’t notice before it is too late.

    The apparent and shocking facts are broad as daylight, the crime is ridiculous, the legal system is in complete tatters, job market is firmly on on the back foot, electricity crisis has only got worse, education cant even be qualified to be called education and we even have a president who can blatantly steal a couple million and still turn around and tell the judge that she is not a judge.

    The saddest fact is that the country has already collapsed, we just waiting for the tail ends to catch up. South Africa in 20 years, look over our border at Zim or Chad or any African country and see your future.

    Sorry to all who are actually dumb enough to support the ANC…… even the gods battle fruitlessly against stupidity.

  4. I have real hope for south africa and wish the beautiful country and ALL its people well. I doubt however if the low road so eloquently described by clem suntner in the 1980s can be avoided! I agree with Gareth – south africa is a turd world country now. Its living on borrowed time. Spending the white tax revenues as if they grow on a tree. If I knew what I know now I guess I would have acted differently in the 80s. I can remember being in a convoy of about two hundred and fifty armored infantry vehicles on a dark cold road one night in 1991. We were heading up to the PWV area and pretoria. I believe the boys at oudshorn were assembling to head down to cape town. Thats the closest we came to a military coup in south africa. After twenty hours we were ordered back to our barracks. South africa deserves better than the incompetent racist anc. Until it gets rid of this criminal organisation south africa is on notice to turn into zimboona or worse! I would reluctantly say if you are white get out of south africa while you still can. Its not going to end well. South africas economy cannot support 16 million idol welfare recipients nor can its five million middle class tax payers. The sovereign ratings are only going one way – down! the rand is steadily depreciating and the country’s infrastructure is a disaster. Roads falling apart etc. I dont need to point out the obvious. Its a mess and only anc apologists and embarrassed rainbow nation type liberals try and explain away the terrible destruction of our once proud developed South africa. Writing is on the wall – Get out now!
    azania delenda est

Mailing List

Sign up for email updates!


Not the continent with 54 countries

©Africa is a Country, 2016