Bill Minter of AfricaFocus Bulletin previews tomorrow’s pro-democracy protests in autocratic Swaziland:

Demonstrations planned for Tuesday April 12 in Swaziland are probably the most ambitious effort yet in sub-Saharan Africa to spark a pro-democracy surge comparable to those earlier this year in Tunisia and Egypt. Economic crisis coupled with the conspicuous luxury of an absolute monarchy committed to repression make the parallels obvious. Over 7,000 protesters marched in demonstrations three weeks ago to oppose salary cuts for civil servants. But the regime has banned Tuesday’s demonstrations, organized by labor, student, and civic organizations as well as through social media.

Social media will likely make only a marginal contribution to the turnout, as only 7% of the Swazi population is estimated to have Internet access, with only about 16,000 Facebook users 1% of the population … The campaign does benefit from strong support from Swazi labor, student, and civic organizations as well as by a support campaign in South Africa organized by COSATU and other groups.

With public attention from South Africa, the Swazi regime may hesitate in using open force against the demonstrators. But King Mswati III, who has already ruled for 25 years, is the heir of a dynasty that dates back to 1921. His father, King Sobhuza II, suspended the constitution on April 12, 1973, five years after the country’s independence. In addition to state repression and popular mobilization, the strength of traditional loyalty to the monarchy is one factor that will weigh heavily on the outcome.

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